Liquor industry: winter, spring be far behind?

Published: 2013-11-17 November 17,2013  Views: 49
Liquor industry: winter, spring be far behind? Sina Finance Client: Reform bonus shares is expected to benefit the Third Plenary birth bull Da Qidi

<< Securities Market Weekly · Red Week >> Contributing author Zhi-Fang

This year, the liquor industry plasticizer problems of overcapacity and the central limit Excellencies consumption under the influence of the environment, including Maotai, Wuliangye liquor business line, including all categories of liquor companies have emerged in this winter profit substantially decrease dilemma, A-share market in the liquor stocks have appeared almost sharp adjustment of prices throughout the year.

Wind statistics show that this year's decline in the top 20 stocks, liquor accounted for seven, with an average decline of 37%, can be quite painful. Market this year, Mid-Autumn Day deserted, it seems more before the end of the industry indicates pessimism. Almost all of the analyzes will continue to insist that the adjustment, institutional investors in the third quarter continued to underweight positions liquor.

This year is undoubtedly the liquor industry in the winter, but since the winter has come, can spring be far away? Sure, this is the wine industry for 10 years, the worst year for the external environment, but that does not hide the liquor industry, the company's long-term value.

First, the liquor industry is not a simple consumer beverage industry, which itself embodies the Chinese culture connotation. 'Life is proud to be thoroughly enjoyed themselves, let a Jinzun air-to-month', 'wine in the sky, I do not know the sky palace, past and present is what year ',' advise you more into a glass of wine, West of Yang Guan reason people ', so ancient poem picked up at random, household and wine especially wine, weddings and marriage in Chinese society, festival reunion, communication between activities occupies a unique position on the thousand years are so, I believe the future will still be the case. several listed companies liquor brand itself existed for several centuries, and some also awarded old Chinese goodwill, which is the brand value.

Secondly, from within the industry analysis, the liquor industry so highly market-oriented, asset-light but can be high profit margins, high cash flow that not many companies currently A stock Exchange, a relatively high profit margins in the industry is nothing more than banks , real estate, software, pharmaceutical and other companies, but compared to these sectors seem to have significant weaknesses liquor Banks real estate high operating leverage and high financial leverage itself is high-risk characteristics, austerity measures and the impact it monopoly protection large, the software industry is an emerging industry, the availability of innovation is the key to survival, and its high profitability obvious stages and unpredictability, the liquor industry compared with other industries, the most obvious advantage is the preservation and even inventory value value-added features. many other food and beverage and other consumer goods (including medicines, there is complete loss of inventory value may decline in value even while the only liquor industry has a product can be stored over time and continuous appreciation of the features. now many market analysts take Maotai ten billion inventory for things, this is actually a pseudo-problem, because we know very well, kept ten or twenty years the value of Maotai Maotai must be better than the year the value of the new big.

Finally, from a stock market perspective, in 2013, three quarterly corresponding to the liquor industry is the high base last year's third quarter, while from 2012 fourth quarter and the first quarter of this year began, the liquor industry has begun to significant adjustments, the will be relatively lower base from theory to analyze the behavior of investors, reverse thinking, independent thinking to survive the stock market has always been the key to victory.

In fact, many liquor performance of listed companies relative to their past performance is declining, from total profits, earnings, sales ratio and Dividends of view, is still stronger than a lot of trades and some excellent wine business class companies have started in the winter lit the fire of revival, such as Gujinggong, green barley wine. autumn winter provisions spring harvest, maybe went to the selection of individual stocks, waiting for the spring season.

Enter [Sina Finance shares it] discussion

ks of SHIBOR interest rates rose 111.80BP and 141.70BP. Meanwhile, an issue also appears difficult market situation, many companies postpone debt issuance, the total social financing from October data can be seen in this month, net financing 106.7 billion yuan corporate bonds, up 192.5 billion yuan less.

Friday the Ministry of Finance issued 50-year fixed rate of 5.31% bid bond, a record high, higher than the market expected 5.29% rise in bond yields make bonds and credit bond yields narrowed further, but also to lift the market financing costs in the IPO market stalled and interest rate hikes in the case, to further enhance the difficulty of financing, which gives the four quarters of the market to bring tremendous pressure.

Outlook period which may enter the agitation period

Next week the focus is of course the announcement >> << determine its fit with the market sentiment will determine the future trend of the market for some time. Favorable long-term policy and monetary funds face tensions in the market trends in the formation game trend, which may influence the market to form intertwined, investors may feel the market ups and downs. Plenary main concern is whether the risk will restart IPO, another plan announced in local debt audit findings may also make local city investment yields rise, thereby further improving financing costs have a negative impact on the market.

Next Week's ability to promote the positive long-term pressure on the CSI 300 index broke the line, the current position of the line in the vicinity of 2440, as a breakthrough, multi-up could be considered, if not effectively break, then again this month, the index may fall short can be considered short rallies.

Enter [Sina Finance shares it] discussion

the company inefficient, why is there such a strong strength come out on top in the long-term partner? set out the assets and What hidden tricky?

Assets into profits can not be cashed

If we say that time Demian shares set out assets so inefficient unlike propaganda, then, was whether the assets placed it so high it?

By the end of 2011 into high-quality assets of the Union Trading Co., Ltd. Zibo Jie (referred to as 'Jie of the Union,' according to Demian shares information, the company is 'merchandise, metal materials, rental, property management and other projects based professional company whose principal asset for the people of Thailand Building, 5th floor of about 22,000 square meters, is currently in China and Thailand Building renovation phase, is expected to put into use in March 2012, its main purpose as supermarkets, cinemas, offices, hotels etc. According to the current rental market conditions, the company expects 2012 profit of 12.5 million yuan to achieve the future to achieve an annual profit of about 15 million yuan. '

By Demian shares bulletin description, Jie of the Union's profitability is also good, but 'the ideal is full, the reality is very skinny.' Demian shares 2012 annual report, Jie of the Union in 2012 net profit of 145 500 million, representing a difference of 12.5 million yuan target 85.91 times! In addition, when the Union Jie only 63,100 yuan in revenue, operating profit there are 734,600 yuan (see Annex.

Why only 63,100 yuan in revenue, while operating profit was as high as 734,600 yuan it? Explanation may be the only kit of the Union in 2012 with a large number of non-operating income or bank deposits, while the main business basically did not carry out. Ie said assets placed fifth season promises China and Thailand Industrial Building in March 2012 and put into use and did not honor, it is apparent Jie of the Union is not a high-quality assets.

And then placed another asset Trading Co., Ltd. Shandong Season (referred to as 'Season-commerce', and there are also difficult to explain questions. Demian shares to public information, the original shareholders of Season commerce originally as the first five quarters (Zhejiang Commercial, July 2011, in replacement of assets on the eve of the fifth season trade equity are transferred to the warm bosom full access and Rao large extent, and by December 2011, Demian shares a clarification announcement did mention to, Season Trading Company shareholder Season (Zhejiang Trading Company, rather than take the warm bosom and Rao large extent, to the 2012, Demian shares released 2011 annual report, the fifth season once again become the owner of commerce back to temperature and Rao pregnant take large extent, these people really do not understand.

Just a very simple equity ownership, Demian shares but again and again to change the caliber. Reason than there are two: one is Demian shares and ownership Season Trading Co. has been in doubt for Season , resulting in disclosure of different caliber, and the second is the fifth season title has been changed commerce, the 'biscuits' has been poured in from the left to the right hand in the process.

Injected more than two 'quality' assets there are various uncertainties, even Season Industry itself has failed to honor the commitment that year in July 2011 Season equity Demian Group Co., the transferee, the first five quarters has publicly promised that 'the share transfer agreement signed << >> After Season Industry will invest an additional, making Season Industrial owner's equity of not less than 535,600,000 yuan.' subsequently Season Industry successfully entered Demian shares and became the parent company of Demian shares, but Demian shares 2011 annual report, its 2011 year-end, the parent company Total equity 218,962,400 yuan, 2012 annual report, its 2012 year-end, Total owners' equity 301,733,000 yuan. did not reach 535.6 million for two years, did not honor his promise. additional questions about Demian shares, << Red Week >> Reporters are in-depth investigation.

Enter [Sina Finance shares it] discussion

na's family planning has made great achievements of young people as it is now no way to imagine, in the 1960s, the average of a woman to give birth to 6-7 children. Just over forty years, the concept of people's birth took place changed dramatically. Planned Parenthood on economic growth, alleviate pressure on resources and the environment as well as on women's health have played a significant role in promoting.

If you do not practice family planning policy, and that China's population is now more than 400 million people on food, energy, housing, education and other aspects will bring enormous pressure, so family planning in China's economic and social development has a very important contribution to Family planning policy is refined and adjusted to conform to the requirements of the development of long-term balanced population, rather than canceled.

Reporter: 'stand-alone two-child' policy, specific embodiments will be like? Is a comprehensive, open simultaneously, or in phases, subregions? Whether to engage the pilot?

Zhai Zhenwu: Currently a specific implementation plan has not yet announced. Currently, China's family planning regulations are enacted by the provinces themselves, not the national unity in the Third Plenum >> << reform decisions, the saying is 'Start', which only determine the direction of a large, but also to modify their respective provincial family planning regulations, unlikely blanket. provinces amend to have a certain time and process, it will, in fact, not the same as the formation of the various regions, the time point is not , each different province's family planning policy, such as before, Jiangsu, Sichuan urban and rural are 'one child' policy, and in Shandong, Anhui, Henan's rural areas, is one of 'a child half' of the policy.

Separate two tires have never done so-called pilot, like Shanxi Yicheng pilot in the 1980s to engage in, not based on whether or not to consider separately, with the background of this policy is now completely different. Now let alone two tires, not to say that first and then try to look at research decision, but started directly.

Intern reporter were Yuanyuan

hth Matt - Kuchar shot 68, four score of 272 (71-66-67-68), par 12.
Comment
1121907
Scott hit the ball in front of home crowd
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http://www.sinaimg.cn/dy/slidenews/2_t160/2013_46/754_1121908_628506.jpg
http://www.sinaimg.cn/dy/slidenews/2_t50/2013_46/754_1121908_628506.jpg
At 13:45 on November 17, 2013
Beijing time on November 17, the Australian Golf handsome Adam - Scott Sunday successfully defended his Australian Masters, which was his second straight week to win today, winds swept Royal Melbourne, Adam - Scott shot 71, par achieved two victories Adam - Scott won the Australian PGA Championship last week and this week his four score: 270 (67-66-66-71), par 14, he leading American player Matt - Kuchar two World eighth Matt - Kuchar shot 68, four score of 272 (71-66-67-68), par 12.
Comment
1121908
Irons greens
http://www.sinaimg.cn/dy/slidenews/2_img/2013_46/754_1121909_615394.jpg
http://www.sinaimg.cn/dy/slidenews/2_t160/2013_46/754_1121909_615394.jpg
http://www.sinaimg.cn/dy/slidenews/2_t50/2013_46/754_1121909_615394.jpg
At 13:45 on November 17, 2013
Beijing time on November 17, the Australian Golf handsome Adam - Scott successfully defended the Australian Masters on Sunday, which was his second straight week to win today, winds swept Royal Melbourne, Adam - Scott shot 71, par achieved two victories Adam - Scott won the Australian PGA Championship last week and this week his four score: 270 (67-66-66-71), par 14, he leading American player Matt - Kuchar two World eighth Matt - Kuchar shot 68, four score of 272 (71-66-67-68), par 12.
Comment
1121909
Williams and Scott
http://www.sinaimg.cn/dy/slidenews/2_img/2013_46/754_1121910_538834.jpg
http://www.sinaimg.cn/dy/slidenews/2_t160/2013_46/754_1121910_538834.jpg
http://www.sinaimg.cn/dy/slidenews/2_t50/2013_46/754_1121910_538834.jpg
At 13:45 on November 17, 2013
Beijing time on November 17, the Australian Golf handsome Adam - Scott Sunday successfully defended his Australian Masters, which was his second straight week to win today, winds swept Royal Melbourne, Adam - Scott shot 71, par achieved two victories Adam - Scott won the Australian PGA Championship last week and this week his four score: 270 (67-66-66-71), par 14, he leading American player Matt - Kuchar two World eighth Matt - Kuchar shot 68, four score of 272 (71-66-67-68), par 12.
Comment
1121910
Audience
http://www.sinaimg.cn/dy/slidenews/2_img/2013_46/754_1121911_638031.jpg
http://www.sinaimg.cn/dy/slidenews/2_t160/2013_46/754_1121911_638031.jpg
http://www.sinaimg.cn/dy/slidenews/2_t50/2013_46/754_1121911_638031.jpg
At 13:45 on November 17, 2013
Beijing time on November 17, the Australian Golf handsome Adam - Scott successfully defended the Australian Masters on Sunday, which was his second straight week to win today, winds swept Royal Melbourne, Adam - Scott shot 71, par achieved two victories Adam - Scott won the Australian PGA Championship last week and this week his four score: 270 (67-66-66-71), par 14, he leading American player Matt - Kuchar two World eighth Matt - Kuchar shot 68, four score of 272 (71-66-67-68), par 12.
Comment
1121911
Singh tapping rod greens
http://www.sinaimg.cn/dy/slidenews/2_img/2013_46/754_1121912_904328.jpg
http://www.sinaimg.cn/dy/slidenews/2_t160/2013_46/754_1121912_904328.jpg
http://www.sinaimg.cn/dy/slidenews/2_t50/2013_46/754_1121912_904328.jpg
At 13:45 on November 17, 2013
Beijing time on November 17, the Australian Golf handsome Adam - Scott successfully defended the Australian Masters on Sunday, which was his second straight week to win today, winds swept Royal Melbourne, Adam - Scott shot 71, par achieved two victories Adam - Scott won the Australian PGA Championship last week and this week his four score: 270 (67-66-66-71), par 14, he leading American player Matt - Kuchar two World eighth Matt - Kuchar shot 68, four score of 272 (71-66-67-68), par 12.
Comment
1121912
Singh swing
http://www.sinaimg.cn/dy/slidenews/2_img/2013_46/754_1121913_975287.jpg
http://www.sinaimg.cn/dy/slidenews/2_t160/2013_46/754_1121913_975287.jpg
http://www.sinaimg.cn/dy/slidenews/2_t50/2013_46/754_1121913_975287.jpg
At 13:45 on November 17, 2013
Beijing time on November 17, the Australian Golf handsome Adam - Scott Sunday successfully defended his Australian Masters, which was his second straight week to win today, winds swept Royal Melbourne, Adam - Scott shot 71, par achieved two victories Adam - Scott won the Australian PGA Championship last week and this week his four score: 270 (67-66-66-71), par 14, he leading American player Matt - Kuchar two World eighth Matt - Kuchar shot 68, four score of 272 (71-66-67-68), par 12.
Comment
1121913
Singh shot
http://www.sinaimg.cn/dy/slidenews/2_img/2013_46/754_1121914_271582.jpg
http://www.sinaimg.cn/dy/slidenews/2_t160/2013_46/754_1121914_271582.jpg
http://www.sinaimg.cn/dy/slidenews/2_t50/2013_46/754_1121914_271582.jpg
At 13:45 on November 17, 2013
Beijing time on November 17, the Australian Golf handsome Adam - Scott Sunday successfully defended his Australian Masters, which was his second straight week to win today, winds swept Royal Melbourne, Adam - Scott shot 71, par achieved two victories Adam - Scott won the Australian PGA Championship last week and this week his four score: 270 (67-66-66-71), par 14, he leading American player Matt - Kuchar two World eighth Matt - Kuchar shot 68, four score of 272 (71-66-67-68), par 12.
Comment
1121914
Happy family
http://www.sinaimg.cn/dy/slidenews/2_img/2013_46/754_1121915_595529.jpg
http://www.sinaimg.cn/dy/slidenews/2_t160/2013_46/754_1121915_595529.jpg
http://www.sinaimg.cn/dy/slidenews/2_t50/2013_46/754_1121915_595529.jpg
At 13:46 on November 17th, 2013
Beijing time on November 17, the Australian Golf handsome Adam - Scott Sunday successfully defended his Australian Masters, which was his second straight week to win today, winds swept Royal Melbourne, Adam - Scott shot 71, par achieved two victories Adam - Scott won the Australian PGA Championship last week and this week his four score: 270 (67-66-66-71), par 14, he leading American player Matt - Kuchar two World eighth Matt - Kuchar shot 68, four score of 272 (71-66-67-68), par 12.
Comment
1121915
Adam - Scott
http://www.sinaimg.cn/dy/slidenews/2_img/2013_46/754_1121916_871255.jpg
http://www.sinaimg.cn/dy/slidenews/2_t160/2013_46/754_1121916_871255.jpg
http://www.sinaimg.cn/dy/slidenews/2_t50/2013_46/754_1121916_871255.jpg
At 13:46 on November 17th, 2013
Beijing time on November 17, the Australian Golf handsome Adam - Scott Sunday successfully defended his Australian Masters, which was his second straight week to win today, winds swep