Liquor industry: winter, spring be far behind?

Published: 2013-11-17 November 17,2013  Views: 32
Liquor industry: winter, spring be far behind? Sina Finance Client: Reform bonus shares is expected to benefit the Third Plenary birth bull Da Qidi

<< Securities Market Weekly · Red Week >> Contributing author Zhi-Fang

This year, the liquor industry plasticizer problems of overcapacity and the central limit Excellencies consumption under the influence of the environment, including Maotai, Wuliangye liquor business line, including all categories of liquor companies have emerged in this winter profit substantially decrease dilemma, A-share market in the liquor stocks have appeared almost sharp adjustment of prices throughout the year.

Wind statistics show that this year's decline in the top 20 stocks, liquor accounted for seven, with an average decline of 37%, can be quite painful. Market this year, Mid-Autumn Day deserted, it seems more before the end of the industry indicates pessimism. Almost all of the analyzes will continue to insist that the adjustment, institutional investors in the third quarter continued to underweight positions liquor.

This year is undoubtedly the liquor industry in the winter, but since the winter has come, can spring be far away? Sure, this is the wine industry for 10 years, the worst year for the external environment, but that does not hide the liquor industry, the company's long-term value.

First, the liquor industry is not a simple consumer beverage industry, which itself embodies the Chinese culture connotation. 'Life is proud to be thoroughly enjoyed themselves, let a Jinzun air-to-month', 'wine in the sky, I do not know the sky palace, past and present is what year ',' advise you more into a glass of wine, West of Yang Guan reason people ', so ancient poem picked up at random, household and wine especially wine, weddings and marriage in Chinese society, festival reunion, communication between activities occupies a unique position on the thousand years are so, I believe the future will still be the case. several listed companies liquor brand itself existed for several centuries, and some also awarded old Chinese goodwill, which is the brand value.

Secondly, from within the industry analysis, the liquor industry so highly market-oriented, asset-light but can be high profit margins, high cash flow that not many companies currently A stock Exchange, a relatively high profit margins in the industry is nothing more than banks , real estate, software, pharmaceutical and other companies, but compared to these sectors seem to have significant weaknesses liquor Banks real estate high operating leverage and high financial leverage itself is high-risk characteristics, austerity measures and the impact it monopoly protection large, the software industry is an emerging industry, the availability of innovation is the key to survival, and its high profitability obvious stages and unpredictability, the liquor industry compared with other industries, the most obvious advantage is the preservation and even inventory value value-added features. many other food and beverage and other consumer goods (including medicines, there is complete loss of inventory value may decline in value even while the only liquor industry has a product can be stored over time and continuous appreciation of the features. now many market analysts take Maotai ten billion inventory for things, this is actually a pseudo-problem, because we know very well, kept ten or twenty years the value of Maotai Maotai must be better than the year the value of the new big.

Finally, from a stock market perspective, in 2013, three quarterly corresponding to the liquor industry is the high base last year's third quarter, while from 2012 fourth quarter and the first quarter of this year began, the liquor industry has begun to significant adjustments, the will be relatively lower base from theory to analyze the behavior of investors, reverse thinking, independent thinking to survive the stock market has always been the key to victory.

In fact, many liquor performance of listed companies relative to their past performance is declining, from total profits, earnings, sales ratio and Dividends of view, is still stronger than a lot of trades and some excellent wine business class companies have started in the winter lit the fire of revival, such as Gujinggong, green barley wine. autumn winter provisions spring harvest, maybe went to the selection of individual stocks, waiting for the spring season.

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